36%.
That’s the number published this Wednesday by the New York Times together with Siena University — the worst Donald Trump has ever recorded in that poll’s history, across both of his terms. 59% of likely voters disapprove of his performance. Twelve days before the November 3 midterms, the president heads into the home stretch in free fall.
What’s sinking him? Not one single issue: it’s the pileup. 73% disapprove of his handling of gas prices — the worst score of everything measured — 69% disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, and 65% disapprove of his handling of the Iran war, now nearly eight months old and pushing oil prices higher.
For Hispanics, the picture is even harsher.
In the poll’s breakdown, 79% of Hispanic voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of gas prices, versus just 17% who approve. And that’s no outlier: in the Times/Siena September reading, 66% of Hispanic voters already disapproved of Trump’s performance, and 78% preferred to see Democrats controlling Congress.
In Doral, Florida — the heavily Venezuelan city many call “Doralzuela” — that shift has a face and a business. María Fernanda Pérez, 32, who owns an arepa shop, told the AFP news agency she regrets voting for Trump: three of her employees stopped showing up to work out of fear of immigration raids, and her sales fell 40% because the community avoids going out. “My logic was that the economy was going to improve,” she said. “I feel sad and disappointed.” And looking toward November, she sums it up in three words: “Anything but Trump.”
She’s not alone. Carlos Bermúdez, a Venezuelan-born lawyer and Republican, describes “constant psychological pressure” in the community; Doral councilman Rafael Pineyro, also a Republican, admits “there is uncertainty, there is fear,” and says the effect is hitting Latino communities across South Florida.
The numbers, unvarnished
The survey interviewed more than 3,000 voters nationwide. Overall approval: 36 to 59. Handling of the economy: 64% against. Cost of living: 69%. Gas prices: 73%. Iran war: 65%. As Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute, put it, Trump’s approval sits “23 points underwater.”
And note: it’s not just the Times. That same week, CNN/SSRS measured him at 32% approval among U.S. adults, Reuters/Ipsos at 31% — his record low in either term — and Echelon Insights at 39%. No serious pollster has him above 50% today. Not even close.
Congress in the crosshairs
Here’s the part keeping Republicans up at night. When respondents were given the names of the candidates in their district, Democrats opened a 10-point lead on the congressional ballot. In the 35 states with Senate races, the Democratic edge is 5 points, and 52% say they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate.
Voters also trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle the economy, the cost of living, gas prices, health care — even artificial intelligence — by 8 to 20 points, according to Siena. That said, most believe both parties “are more focused on the wrong things than the right things.” Nobody comes out of this poll looking good.
Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant who has studied the Latino vote for 35 years, puts it this way: it’s not that Hispanics have fallen in love with Democrats; they’re “extremely upset, disillusioned and angry” with Trump. They’re leaving Republicans for the same reasons they left Democrats two years ago. The wallet rules.
If the poll has you thinking about November 3, two useful facts: early voting is already underway and more than 16.3 million people have voted, and this isn’t the first survey to flag the Latino shift — last week’s Equis poll already showed the fracture. Voting rules vary by state: check yours at vote.gov before you go.
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